NAB Economics have forecasted Sydney and Melbourne house prices to both decline over eight percent over 2019.
Melbourne is forecasted to see falls greater than Sydney.
Houses in the Victoria capital are expected to fall 8.8%, compared to Sydney’s 8.4%.
The forecasts mean NAB expect Sydney house prices to fall 20% peak to trough, with Melbourne 15%.
NAB expect house prices in the two biggest property markets to continue to decline in 2020, just at a much slower rate.
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Hobart and Adelaide are the only capital cities forecasted to see house prices growth in 2019.
“Overall, we see the adjustment in house prices continuing in an orderly manner, with prices remaining well up on 5 years ago,” NAB said.
NAB expect Sydney’s unit prices to be the worst performing over 2019, with 7.2% declines forecasted.
Melbourne’s declines are set to be softer at 4.3%, below Perth (-4.7%) and just above Brisbane (-4.2%).
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Market sentiment among 300 surveyed property professionals ticked a little in higher Q1 2019 as the monthly rate of house price decline eased in the first three months of the year.
The NAB Residential Property Index rose five points to a still very weak -15 as house prices in much of the country continued falling.
Sentiment was negative in all states bar South Australia and the Northern Territory (where annual dwelling prices in SA remain positive) and remained weakest in NSW and VIC where price falls were biggest.
Confidence was unchanged for the next 12 months, suggesting that market momentum will remain weak into 2020, however longer-term confidence improved with suggestions housing market conditions may start improving moving into 2021.
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